Toronto Real Estate Market Update 2026: What Smart Buyers and Sellers Are Doing Right Now

If you’ve been waiting for a clean, honest read on where the Toronto and GTA market actually stands in 2026, this is it. Not headlines, not hype, and not doom-scrolling economics. Just what the numbers say, what buyers and sellers are doing, and how to play this market with a plan.

I negotiate in this market every week. I also track the data daily. Those two views rarely match the headlines, and that gap is where most good decisions get made.

If you want a deeper, always-updated context layer, I’ve laid it out in my definitive guide to the Toronto and GTA housing market. This post is your January 2026 snapshot and strategy overlay.

[Image Placeholder: Toronto skyline at golden hour with condos and low-rise homes]

The Real 2026 Market Snapshot (Direct Answer)

As of January 2026, the GTA market is slower, more selective, and more negotiable. Prices are down year over year, inventory is higher, and days on market have stretched. Buyers have more choice and more leverage, while sellers who price and position correctly can still get deals done in a reasonable timeframe.

Here are the Toronto and York Region highlights based on TRREB’s January numbers.

Toronto (All Home Types):

• Average price: $948,698 (down 3.7% YoY, down 3.8% MoM)

• Homes sold: 1,074 (down 22.5% YoY)

• New listings: 4,077 (up 109.1% MoM, down 13.9% YoY)

• Average days on market: 45

• Sale-to-list ratio: 97%

Toronto Condos:

• Average price: $631,932 (down 8.6% YoY)

• Homes sold: 568

• New listings: 2,416

• Average days on market: 50

• Sale-to-list ratio: 96%

Toronto Townhomes:

• Average price: $765,911 (down 11.9% YoY)

• Homes sold: 74

• New listings: 295

• Average days on market: 53

• Sale-to-list ratio: 97%

York Region (All Home Types):

• Average price: $1,110,582 (down 8.7% YoY)

• Homes sold: 554

• New listings: 1,996

• Average days on market: 47

• Sale-to-list ratio: 96%

York Region Condos:

• Average price: $561,628 (down 15.2% YoY)

• Homes sold: 109

• New listings: 475

• Average days on market: 52

• Sale-to-list ratio: 97%

York Region Townhomes:

• Average price: $728,033 (down 16.4% YoY)

• Homes sold: 35

• New listings: 129

• Average days on market: 37

• Sale-to-list ratio: 97%

Source: TRREB January 2026 Market Snapshot via Property.ca

For the broader context, TRREB’s full market reporting is available at https://trreb.ca.

The short version is simple. There is more choice, more negotiation, and less urgency than we’ve seen in years.

What’s Actually Driving This Market Right Now

January gave us an early signal for how 2026 is starting. The market is moving, but confidence is still catching up.

Across the GTA, sales are down year over year. New listings are also lower year over year, but active listings are higher. That combination creates one clear result: buyers have options and they know it.

Here’s what I’m seeing drive behavior right now.

• Psychology before math. Buyers are cautious even when the numbers work. They want to feel safe before they want to feel fast.

• Inventory pressure. More choice means more comparison. Layout, condition, and pricing get judged hard.

• Longer decision cycles. Days on market are up across Toronto and York Region. That tells you urgency is low.

• Segment weakness in condos. Condo prices are down more than low-rise, and absorption is slower.

• The under-$1M effect. The Toronto average slipping under $1M pulls people back into the conversation, but not into reckless offers.

This is not a frozen market. It’s a selective one. That’s a huge difference.

What Smart Buyers Are Doing Differently in 2026

The buyers doing well right now are not trying to “time the bottom.” They’re trying to control the terms.

If you’re buying in the GTA today, the edge comes from preparation and patience, not speed for the sake of speed.

Here’s what I see working.

• They know their real comfort number. Not the bank’s max, not the broker’s stretch, but the payment they can live with.

• They focus on listings that have been sitting. Time on market is leverage when you use it properly.

• They separate good homes from good deals. A good home can be a bad deal. A good deal can be made on the right home.

• They negotiate conditions again. Financing and inspection clauses are back in play in many segments.

• They move fast only when the price is clearly right. Speed is still a weapon, but only when the math supports it.

In condos, especially, buyers are being even more selective. With average days on market at 50 in Toronto condos and 52 in York Region condos, patience is being rewarded more often than impulse.

What Smart Sellers Are Doing to Still Win

If you’re selling in today’s GTA market, the biggest mistake I see is pretending it’s still 2021 or even 2023.

The sellers who are getting traction are doing three things very well.

• They price to today’s competition, not yesterday’s neighbor. Buyers compare everything. You must win that comparison.

• They aim to win the first 7 to 10 days. That’s when attention is highest and feedback is cleanest.

• They remove friction. Clean presentation, flexible showings, and clear offer instructions matter more now.

With sale-to-list ratios sitting around 96% to 97% across most segments, this is not a discount fire sale market. It is a precision pricing market.

Miss the range and you sit. Hit the range and you still move.

Hyper-Local GTA Insight: Why Strategy Changes by Area

This is where generic advice breaks down.

Downtown Toronto condos are not behaving like York Region townhomes. Freehold in certain 905 pockets is not behaving like entry-level units near transit.

A few examples from the January data:

• Toronto condos are averaging 50 days on market.

• Toronto townhomes are averaging 53 days on market.

• York Region townhomes are averaging 37 days on market.

That tells you demand is not evenly distributed. It also tells you strategy has to be local, not just market-wide.

For downsizers, this matters even more. If you’re thinking about downsizing in the GTA, the spread between what you sell and what you buy is where the real opportunity or risk lives.

The same house, priced the same way, can perform very differently in two postal codes right now.

The 2026 Opportunity Most People Are Missing

Move-up buyers are quietly in one of the best strategic positions they’ve had in years.

When both sides of the move are softer, the gap matters more than the headline price. That’s why the condo-to-house price gap in 2026 is such an important story right now.

Here’s the simple math.

• If condos are down more than freeholds, your sale price hurts.

• If freeholds are also down, your buy price helps.

• What matters is the difference between the two, not the absolute numbers.

This is where smart sequencing, clean negotiation, and tight timing make a real difference. It’s also where sloppy planning costs people six figures without them realizing it.

How I’d Play This Market If I Were You

I look at this market through three lenses: buyer, seller, and life-stage mover.

If you’re a buyer:

• Stay patient, but stay ready.

• Use time on market as leverage.

• Be aggressive only when the price is clearly right.

If you’re a seller:

• Price for today, not for hope.

• Aim to win early attention.

• Treat presentation like a multiplier, not a detail.

If you’re moving up or downsizing:

• Focus on the spread, not the headlines.

• Plan the sequence before you list or offer.

• Use negotiation to protect the transition, not just the price.

This is where “Top Producer. Real Approach.” actually means something. The outcome is not decided by the market. It’s decided by process, positioning, and negotiation. That’s how I run every file. That’s also why I say “GTA Real Estate Solved” without flinching.

Conclusion: Your Next Move Matters More Than the Headlines

2026 is not a panic market. It’s a thinking market.

There is more choice. There is more negotiation. There is less urgency. That combination rewards people who plan, not people who guess.

If you want to talk through your specific situation, your timing, and your leverage, let’s do it properly.

Book a 15-minute Strategy Session to talk about your specific move in this market.

Key Takeaways

• Buyers have more leverage, but only if they stay patient and prepared.

• Sellers can still win, but only with precise pricing and clean execution.

• Condos remain the softer segment, especially in Toronto and York Region.

• Move-up and downsizing strategies depend on the price gap, not headlines.

• In 2026, strategy beats speed and process beats hope.