GTA Real Estate Market Update: What the Numbers Are Finally Saying About 2025

Bram Sandow
3 days ago
5 min read

Introduction — Cutting Through the Noise at Year-End

As we share the final market update of the year, I want to start with a genuine thank you. If you’ve been following along through 2025, you’ve lived through a market full of mixed signals, loud headlines, and a lot of waiting. My goal has stayed the same: cut through the noise and focus on what the numbers actually mean for real people making real decisions.

This market isn’t broken. It’s selective, cautious, and far more rational than the headlines suggest.

That matters as we head toward 2026.

Top Producer. Real Approach.GTA Real Estate Solved.

The Big Picture: Where the GTA Market Actually Stands Right Now

Direct Answer: The GTA real estate market is neither rebounding nor collapsing heading into 2026. Sales and prices remain lower year over year, inventory is healthy, and buyers hold leverage. Activity continues, but decisions are slower, more intentional, and driven by fundamentals rather than fear or hype.

If you want deeper context on how this fits into the broader cycle, my definitive guide to the Toronto GTA housing market breaks it down without the fluff.

Here’s what November told us as 2025 winds down:

Sales: 5,010 (-15.8% YoY)
New Listings: 11,134 (-4.0% YoY)
Active Inventory: 21,910
Average Price: $1,039,458 (-6.4% YoY)
Average Days on Market: 34

No year-end surge. No sudden drop. Just clarity.

The Numbers That Matter (And the Ones People Obsess Over for No Reason)

Sales were down again in November, but that’s not the whole story. What matters more is balance.

Inventory stayed elevated, giving buyers room to compare, negotiate, and step back when something doesn’t feel right. That dynamic is shaping everything from pricing to offer strategies.

A few realities I’m seeing on the ground:

Buyers are walking away more often
Conditional offers are back
Price reductions are part of the process, not a failure
Time on market is normalizing instead of being feared

What matters less right now:

Month-to-month price noise
One-off bidding wars
Sensational “turning point” headlines

This is a market driven by math, not adrenaline.

Buyer and Seller Behaviour Is Shifting (Negotiation Matters Again)

One of the biggest changes in 2025 has been leverage. Not theoretical leverage, real leverage.

Buyers are cautious, but they’re not gone. Sellers are adjusting expectations, even if it takes a few weeks to get there. That’s where outcomes are won or lost.

I’ve written more about this shift in buyers hesitate while sellers adapt, and it’s still playing out.

What I’m seeing consistently:

Longer decision timelines
Fewer emotional offers
More attention on financing, renewals, and job security
Negotiations based on comparables, not hope

Aggressive negotiation today doesn’t mean being combative. It means being prepared, unemotional, and clear on walk-away points.

Condo vs. Freehold: The Market Is No Longer Moving as One

This is where averages lie.

Detached homes in the 905 continue to hold value relatively well. Demand hasn’t disappeared, especially for well-located, family-friendly properties with realistic pricing.

Condos are a different story.

Condo sales fell nearly 20% year over year
Downtown investor stock remains under pressure
Days on market keep stretching
Buyers are selective and sensitive to fees and future costs

That divergence matters whether you’re buying, selling, or investing.

2025 Outlook in Context: What I’m Watching Closely

I’ve shared deeper forecasting in my 2025 real estate market insights, but here’s the short version as we close the year.

Three things that will matter most heading into 2026:

Confidence vs. headlinesRecent economic data has been stronger than expected. If that holds, confidence may improve faster than sentiment.
Inventory and absorptionThe market is well supplied. If listings start moving faster, that’s the first real signal momentum is returning.
Borrowing cost stabilityFall rate cuts are still working through renewals and pre-approvals. Most forecasts point to a pause, which means stability, not chaos.

For reference, broader national context can be found via the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), which tracks market trends across the country.

Hyper-Local GTA Insight: Why Not All Moves Make Sense Anymore

This market is exposing bad assumptions.

Moves that worked five years ago don’t always work today, especially for downsizers and move-up buyers. Spread math matters again.

If you’re considering a lifestyle-driven move, my guide on downsizing in the GTA without costly mistakes is worth reading before making assumptions based on old rules.

What I’m advising clients right now:

Condo-to-freehold moves need careful math
Downsizing isn’t always cheaper once fees and taxes are counted
Waiting can be strategic, but only with a plan

Thinking of Buying?

This is one of the most buyer-friendly environments we’ve seen in years.

Inventory is healthy
Price softness exists in several segments
Negotiation room is real

If economic conditions steady in early 2026, this window could narrow. Buyers who are prepared now, not rushed later, will have the advantage.

Key steps I’m recommending:

Refresh pre-approvals
Track specific neighbourhoods, not headlines
Be patient, but decisive when value shows up

Thinking of Selling?

Homes are still selling, but preparation matters more than ever.

Buyers are comparing everything. Listings that feel overpriced or sloppy get ignored fast.

What still works:

Realistic pricing
Strong presentation
Clear communication
A strategy, not hope

If you’re wondering where your home actually sits in today’s market, you can request a personalized home valuation and get clarity without pressure.

Thinking of Investing?

Condos remain under pressure, especially downtown, but that pressure is creating openings for long-term investors.

Rental demand is still solid
Entry prices are softer
Short-term speculation is out, long-term planning is in

Detached homes in the 905 continue to see steady interest, especially where fundamentals support rental stability.

The Market Isn’t Broken — It’s Intentional

November confirmed what many of us already felt.

This is a cautious but functional market. Deals are happening, just with more thought behind them. Urgency is coming from personal timelines, not competition.

As 2025 wraps up, the groundwork is there. If confidence improves, activity follows. If it doesn’t, the GTA is already operating in a stable, predictable range that can carry into 2026 without disruption.

What This Means for You Right Now

Buyers have leverage, but patience is required
Sellers can succeed with the right strategy
Investors need longer horizons
Everyone benefits from clarity over speculation

If you want to talk through how this market applies to your situation, you can book a 15-minute Strategy Session. No pressure, just a real conversation.