September's Market Shift: What GTA Buyers and Sellers Need to Know Right Now

Something shifted in September.

After months of hesitation, the GTA market finally got a pulse. The Bank of Canada's rate cut gave buyers what they've been waiting for—room to breathe—and they showed up. Sales jumped 8.5% year-over-year, with 5,592 homes changing hands across the region. That's the kind of movement we haven't seen in a while, and it's proof that a little rate relief can go a long way.

But here's what made this month different: listings didn't flood in. New listings rose just 4% from last year, and active inventory actually dipped slightly from August. That tells me inventory may have peaked for now, which means well-priced homes are getting noticed again. Buyers who move fast are finding opportunities before competition ramps up.

Prices held steady month-to-month at an average of $1,059,377—still about 5% lower than last year, but stable. And that stability matters. Detached homes in the 905 are holding their ground, while downtown condos are still working harder for attention. The tone has changed. The market isn't racing ahead, but it's warming up, and confidence is creeping back in.

Here's What the Numbers Tell Us

• Sales: 5,592 (+8.5% YoY)

• New Listings: 19,260 (+3.9% YoY)

• Average Price: $1,059,377 (-4.7% YoY)

• Average Days on Market: 33

Those numbers paint a clear picture: buyers are back, but they're selective. Sellers who understand that—and price accordingly—are the ones getting serious offers.

What This Means for Your Next Move

If you're thinking of buying, this is your window. Rates are down, prices have levelled off, and sellers are still open to negotiation. But that won't last if the Bank of Canada drops rates again before year-end, which they've hinted at. I'm already seeing buyers who hesitated all summer getting off the sidelines, armed with fresh pre-approvals and ready to act. Get your financing sorted now and stay ready to move when the right property hits the market.

If you're thinking of selling, understand this: buyers are back, but they've done their homework. They know what's out there, and they're not overpaying. Homes that look great and price right are getting multiple offers. Homes that don't are sitting. This is a moment to stand out, not to test the market. If you've been waiting for the "right time," this is it. Inventory is balanced, but buyers have options—so presentation and pricing matter more than ever.

If you're thinking of investing, pay attention to detached homes in the 905 and mid-tier suburban markets. They're holding value, drawing renters, and with borrowing costs easing, this fall could be your best entry point before momentum builds. The fundamentals are there: strong rental demand, stable pricing, and lower carrying costs. If you've been waiting to expand your portfolio, now's the time to move strategically.

The Big Question Everyone's Asking

What happens next?

The Bank of Canada has hinted that more rate cuts could come before year-end. If that happens, expect demand to pick up faster and the window for softer prices to close quickly. We're already seeing early signs of tightening in certain segments—particularly those detached homes in the 905 I mentioned. They continue to show relative strength while downtown condos face headwinds from higher supply and cautious investors.

That segmentation matters. A detached home in Oakville is behaving very differently than a one-bedroom condo in Liberty Village right now. Know your segment before you make a move.

What I'm Watching

The 8.5% year-over-year jump in sales is encouraging, but can it hold as we head into the slower fall and winter months? That's the first thing I'm tracking. The second is inventory. If listings stay tight like they did in September, we could see prices stabilize faster than most people expect.

And then there's the interest rate wildcard. Another cut would be a game-changer. It would bring more buyers back and shrink your negotiating window overnight.

Bottom Line

The market's shifting in real time. September showed us that buyers are ready to act when conditions improve, but they're still selective. The fall market is here, and the opportunities won't wait.

If you're thinking about making a move—whether you're buying, selling, or investing—now's the time to have a real conversation about strategy. Let's talk about what this means for your specific situation and make your next move the right one.