Will Toronto Home Prices Rise, Fall, or Freeze? Your Plain-English GTA Forecast

Bram Sandow
Jan 16
5 min read

If 2025 had a mood, it was pause.

If 2026 has a theme, it is clarity.

Last year did not feel dramatic on the surface. There were no wild bidding wars and no sudden collapse. What actually happened was more subtle and more important: the market recalibrated.

Buyers slowed down. Sellers adjusted. Pricing softened. Supply widened. Negotiation came back. Over time, that shift quietly moved leverage toward buyers in a way we had not seen for years.

From where I sit, that adjustment was necessary. It was also overdue.

Now we enter 2026 on steadier footing. The noise has not disappeared, but it has become familiar. People are learning to make decisions inside uncertainty rather than waiting for uncertainty to disappear.

If you want to follow how this evolves month to month, my GTA market updates track the same patterns you will see playing out this year.

GTA market updates → https://www.realestatebram.com/blog/categories/market-update

The Core Challenge in Early 2026

Toronto home prices in 2026 are most likely to “freeze with movement” rather than sharply rise or fall. Softer pricing, healthy supply, and steadier borrowing conditions point to a balanced market where outcomes depend more on preparation, pricing, and confidence than on momentum or bidding wars.

That single idea frames everything that follows.

This is not a market driven by urgency. It is a market driven by quality, location, and strategy.

Why 2025 Was the Adjustment

Looking back, 2025 was not a crisis year. It was a resetting year.

Across the GTA:

62,433 sales, down 11.2 percent year over year
186,753 new listings, up 10.1 percent
Average price of $1,067,968, down 4.7 percent

What matters more than the headline numbers is what they represent.

More listings meant more choice. More choice meant more time. More time meant better negotiations.

December reflected this perfectly:

3,697 sales, down 8.9 percent
5,299 new listings, up 1.8 percent
Average price $1,006,735, down 5.1 percent
41 days on market

Buyers were not rushing. Sellers were not desperate. The market simply settled into a steadier rhythm.

The deeper story, though, was psychological.

Many people did not sit out 2025 because housing did not make sense. They sat out because the world felt hard to read. Geopolitical tension, economic headlines, and U.S. political volatility all weighed on confidence.

Housing decisions followed that broader mood. When the future feels uncertain, people delay big commitments, even if affordability is improving.

What has changed in early 2026 is not the world itself, but how people relate to it. Buyers and sellers are becoming more comfortable planning within uncertainty rather than waiting for certainty that may never arrive.

Historically, that is when real estate activity starts to normalize again.

Your Strategy Framework in This Market

If you are buying

This is a preparation market, not a panic market.

You have space to think. Use it wisely.

Right now, successful buyers are doing three things consistently:

Getting fully underwritten for financing, not just casually pre-approved.
Defining priorities before touring so they do not chase every shiny listing.
Negotiating with leverage but staying reasonable so deals actually get done.

The best opportunities today are crafted, not stumbled into. A clear, disciplined plan matters more than reacting to headlines.

That is exactly why a smart buying strategy in the GTA is so valuable in this environment.

If you are selling

Buyers are active, but selective. That distinction is everything.

Homes that are priced realistically and presented well continue to attract attention. Listings that cling to last year’s peak pricing tend to sit.

In this market:

Preparation is not optional.
Pricing is strategy, not emotion.
Timing and staging create leverage.

Momentum alone will not sell a property in 2026. A clear, process-led approach will.

That is where a strategic approach to selling in Toronto makes a measurable difference.

Hyper-Local GTA Insight: Three Markets, Not One

Rather than thinking of “the GTA market,” it is more accurate to think of three distinct segments that behave differently.

1) Detached and other freehold homes

This is the segment I expect to strengthen first in 2026.

Detached homes, particularly in the 905, have been the most resilient part of the market throughout the slowdown. End-user demand for space, schools, and long-term stability does not disappear when conditions soften; it just becomes more selective.

As affordability improves and confidence steadies, freehold demand is likely to re-emerge gradually. I am watching early 2026 absorption closely in places like Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Markham, and Oakville. If days on market begin to tighten there first, that will be a meaningful signal for the broader market.

The key idea: freehold is where the floor is firmest.

2) Townhouses

This is where your insight is particularly sharp.

Townhouses sit between detached homes and condos, both in price and in lifestyle. In York Region especially, I expect townhouse condos to follow freehold momentum upward as buyers regain confidence.

They offer:

More space than apartments
Lower maintenance than detached homes
Strong family appeal
Better affordability than fully detached houses

Well-located townhomes near transit, good schools, and parks should perform better than the overall market this year. They are often the quiet winners in balanced markets because they check so many boxes for move-up buyers and young families.

3) Apartment-style condos

This remains the softest segment, and I do not see that changing much in 2026.

Downtown investor-heavy stock continues to face pricing pressure. Days on market are longer. Buyers are more discerning about condo fees, building quality, and long-term resale value.

Rental demand is steady, which supports values over time, but that does not automatically translate into price growth in the near term.

In plain terms: If you are buying a condo, think long-term. If you are selling a condo, think strategy, not hope.

I do not expect a broad condo price rebound this year. Select buildings in strong locations may outperform, but the segment overall is likely to stay soft relative to freehold and townhouses.

What to Watch in 2026

Three signals will tell us how the year unfolds.

1) Confidence versus caution Affordability improved in 2025, but confidence lagged. Job stability and broader economic sentiment will determine how quickly sidelined buyers return.

2) Inventory and absorption Supply remains healthy. If days on market begin to shorten in Q1, that will be the first real sign that demand is responding to current pricing.

3) Rate stability Recent rate cuts are already reflected in renewals and pre-approvals. More predictable borrowing conditions reduce paralysis and encourage action.

For official monetary policy updates, the Bank of Canada remains the authoritative source:https://www.bankofcanada.ca

Future-Proofing Your Move

Different people need different strategies in this market.

First-time buyers: Clarity beats urgency. Lock your financing early and stay patient for the right fit.

Move-up buyers: Your spread matters more than market direction. Align timing with cash flow and lifestyle, not headlines.

Investors: Condos require patience right now. Freehold and townhouses may offer better risk-adjusted upside in 2026.

Downsizers: This is a thoughtful market, not a rushed one. Slower conditions reward careful planning and staged transitions.

If this is your stage of life, my GTA downsizer guide walks through the choices that actually matter.

Where I Stand on 2026

Here is my clear view:

Freehold homes: likely to strengthen gradually.
York Region townhouses: likely to follow freehold upward.
Apartment condos: likely to remain soft.

Prices are not going to spike. They are more likely to stabilize and then sort themselves by quality, location, and value.

That is exactly the kind of market where process wins. Not hype. Not luck. Process.

This is why my approach is Top Producer. Real Approach. Clear analysis, disciplined negotiation, and seamless execution.

That is how you turn uncertainty into opportunity.That is GTA Real Estate Solved.

👉 Speak with Bram about your next move.

Key Takeaways

2026 is shaping up as a balanced, steady market, not an extreme one.
Freehold homes should lead any recovery, with York Region townhouses close behind.
Apartment condos likely remain soft, making strategy more important than timing.
Preparation and pricing will matter more than momentum all year.
Confidence, not rates alone, will determine when activity truly picks up